New poll asks who should replace Trudeau, LeBlanc among contenders

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A new poll suggests that Dominic LeBlanc is in the middle of a pack of Liberal leadership contenders to replace Justin Trudeau.

It’s a race with no obvious front-runner, according to Abacus Data’s new survey that asked a sampling of all Canadians, as well as current Liberal supporters, about their impressions of seven possible Liberal leadership candidates.

The findings are being released as Trudeau’s Liberal government continues to find itself significantly behind in national polls with the Conservatives and leader Pierre Poilievre with a sizable lead in voting intentions.

That’s as LeBlanc and others have downplayed their interest in grabbing the party’s reins.

The respondents of the new poll were specifically asked who they would prefer to see replace Trudeau as Liberal leader if he announced he was not going to run again.

The majority polled, 54 per cent, responded that they weren’t yet taking sides.

But among those who declared a preference, Finance Minister Chrystia Freeland had the most support with 13 per cent saying she would be the best option.

Mark Carney, the former Bank of Canada governor, ranked second at 11 per cent.

The rest of the field was then closely lumped together with Foreign Affairs Minister Mélanie Joly, Industry Minister François-Philippe Champagne, LeBlanc, Housing Minister Sean Fraser, and Treasury Board President Anita Anand each receiving between three and five per cent of respondent support.

Support for Freeland was more pronounced among current Liberal supporters with 27 per cent, while Carney received 14 per cent, Joly with eight per cent.

LeBlanc is again in a logjam with four per cent of Liberal card carrying member support.

A regional breakdown shows LeBlanc’s support predominantly comes from Atlantic Canada where 10 per cent of current Liberal members polled said he should be the next Liberal leader.

Still, that was third place to both Freeland and Carney, although slightly ahead of Nova Scotia MP Fraser with nine per cent support in the region.

LeBlanc had low, but relatively even, support among the other regions of the country.

When all Canadians polled were asked about the positive, neutral, or negative impression they had of each prospective future leader, LeBlanc ranked fifth out of seven with a net negative rating six.

That was as 13 per cent had a positive impression of the New Brunswick cabinet minister, while 19 per cent had a negative view.

The remainder had a neutral impression or no view.

Fraser had the lowest net rating at negative 18, followed by Freeland at negative 13.

That said, none of the seven had a net positive rating, although Carney and Champagne both had an even rating, with as many supporters as detractors.

Using online panels, Abacus surveyed a representative sample of 1,500 Canadian adults between April 25 and April 29. Although opt-in polls cannot be assigned a margin of error, for comparison purposes, a random sample of this size would have one of plus or minus 2.6 percentage points, 19 times out of 20.

The results ultimately show a muddled field with no clear choice emerging.

LeBlanc has denied that he’s quietly planning behind the scenes to succeed Trudeau, maintaining that his loyalty to the prime minister “should never be in doubt.”

In a short interview with Brunswick News last month, LeBlanc added that any leadership aspirations he has are “moot” as Trudeau plans to lead the party into the next federal election – and the New Brunswick MP is going to help his childhood friend win.

The comments came in reaction to a Globe and Mail column that stated an unnamed former Liberal cabinet minister recently met with LeBlanc where plans to see the New Brunswick succeed Trudeau were discussed, should he step down.

It added that LeBlanc was “eager” and “prepared to put in the arduous work involved in a leadership campaign.”

The unnamed cabinet minister agreed to be part of a group to lay the groundwork for a run, it added.

Asked by Brunswick News if there was any truth to the report, LeBlanc flatly answered “No.”

“I was surprised to see that,” he said. “My loyalty to the prime minister should never be in doubt, I’m very happy that he’s announced that he’s running again.

“I’m focused on the Public Safety and intergovernmental Affairs work, I’ve been extremely busy with this job, and I’m a candidate running with him in the next election.”

He added: “Frankly, I’m also very focused on him being reelected and the team being reelected.

“That is the only focus I have at the moment.”